为什么必须切断伊朗的金属出口

白宫贸易与制造业政策办公室主任 彼得•纳瓦罗 为英国《金融时报》撰稿
2019.05.14 12:00

美国已下定决心切断伊朗的外部资金来源,因为我们希望阻止伊朗资助导弹研发、煽动地区冲突以及为恐怖主义网络提供资金。

伊朗的很多资金来自金属出口,包括钢材出口创汇42亿美元(较2017年增长53%)、铜及其下游产品出口创汇9.17亿美元。伊朗有望在今年年底前成为铝净出口国。

这就是为什么美国总统唐纳德•特朗普(Donald Trump)上周签署了一项新的、严厉的行政命令,将现有制裁扩大至包括伊朗的铝、铜和钢铁。如不实施这些制裁,伊朗的钢铁出口收入将大幅增加。

作为其雄心勃勃的“2025愿景计划”(2025 Vision Plan)的一部分,伊朗正力争成为全球第六大钢铁生产国,预计到2025年,钢铁产能将接近翻番,从2017年的3100万吨增至5500万吨。

伊朗还有三座新的在建或近期完工的原铝冶炼厂。位于阿萨卢耶(Asaluyeh)的伊朗南方铝业(Salco)的冶炼厂规模最大,预计今年投产,将新增产能近30万吨。该项目包括一个位于伊朗南部、临近该冶炼厂的深水港,说明这家冶炼厂生产的大部分铝将用于出口。

伊朗从金属出口中取得的大部分收入(即使不是全部)直接流入了政府的腰包。伊朗最大的三家钢铁生产商都属国有,三家占本国总产能的50%以上。新兴的铝业完全属国有,增长迅速,之前外界预测伊朗今年将成为铝材净出口国。

伊朗目前最大的钢铁出口市场包括印度尼西亚、泰国、伊拉克、土耳其、阿曼、阿联酋、台湾和埃及。随着美国的伙伴和盟友对从伊朗采购材料的高风险作出回应,并寻找不为恐怖活动提供资金的、更可靠的替代供应来源,新的制裁措施应该会让流入这些市场的伊朗金属大幅减少。

拟议中的制裁应该能够阻遏伊朗通过第三方国家“转运”钢铁及其他金属进入美国的任何企图——这种做法暗中破坏了先前存在的、总统以国家安全为由加征的钢铝关税。

这些新的制裁还将发出一个明确信号,即如果中国继续支持包括伊朗在内的流氓政权,它可能付出沉重代价。从历史上看,中国为伊朗钢铁生产商提供了其扩大这一产业所必需的大部分投资、设备和战略建议。

仅举最近一例,中国国有的中冶集团(China Metallurgical Group Corporation)计划为伊朗的钢铁产能扩张提供相当大一部分资金。

铝业也存在类似情况。中国国有的中国有色金属建设股份有限公司(NFC)为上文提到的12亿美元的伊朗南方铝业冶炼厂提供了资助。中国还在与伊朗就建设一座200万吨氧化铝精炼厂进行谈判,以支持该行业的扩张。

总结一下就是:特朗普政府对伊朗金属出口的最新制裁,将有助于进一步限制伊朗开发导弹、在该地区传播极端伊斯兰主义、制造混乱,以及支持恐怖主义网络的能力。

目前正通过金属贸易为伊朗的流氓行为提供资金的国家和公司已经收到了警告,从事此类贸易的代价已大幅提高。作为买家,它们应该注意,今后美国将对违反对伊朗制裁的行为零容忍。

本文作者是美国总统贸易与制造业政策助理

译者/何黎

以下为此文英文原文:Iran’s metals trade funds weapons development

By Peter Navarro

The US is determined to choke off external funding to Iran because we want to prevent it from financing missile development, fomenting regional conflicts and funding terrorist networks.

Much of Iran’s money comes from metal exports, including $4.2bn from the sale of steel — a 53 per cent increase from 2017 — and a further $917m from copper and its downstream products. The country is on schedule to become a net exporter of aluminium by the end of the year.

That is why US President Donald Trump signed a tough new executive order last week, extending existing sanctions to include Iranian aluminium, copper, iron and steel. Without such sanctions, Iran’s steel export revenues will increase significantly.

As part of its ambitious 2025 Vision Plan, Iran seeks to become the world’s sixth-largest steelmaker as capacity is projected to almost double, from 31m metric tonnes in 2017 to 55m by 2025.

Iran also has three greenfield primary aluminium smelters either under construction or recently completed. The Salco smelter in Asaluyeh is the largest. It is due to come online this year and will add nearly 300,000 tonnes of production. The project includes a deepwater port located near the facility in southern Iran — an indication that the smelter will export the majority of the aluminium it produces.

Most, if not all, of Iran’s export revenues from the metals trade flow right into government coffers. The country’s top three steel producers are all state-owned and account for more than 50 per cent of production. An emerging aluminium industry is entirely state-owned, growing rapidly and was projected to be a net exporter this year.

Iran’s top steel export markets currently include Indonesia, Thailand, Iraq, Turkey, Oman, the United Arab Emirates, Taiwan and Egypt. The new sanctions should turn the flow of Iranian metals to these markets into a trickle as America’s partners and allies respond to the higher risks of sourcing materials from Iran and seek out more reliable, alternative sources of supply that do not fund terror with the proceeds.

The proposed sanctions should curtail any attempts by Iran to “trans-ship” steel and other metals into the US through third-party countries — a scheme that undermines the pre-existing steel and aluminium tariffs the president has imposed for national security reasons.

These new sanctions will also send a clear signal that China may pay a heavy price if it continues to support rogue regimes, including Iran. Historically, China has provided Iranian steel producers with much of the investment, equipment and strategic advice necessary to expand its industry.

To take just one recent example, the state-owned Chinese Metallurgical Group Corporation intends to finance a significant share of Iran’s steel capacity expansion.

A similar situation exists with aluminium. The aforementioned $1.2bn Salco-Asalouyeh smelting facility was funded by the state-managed Chinese Nonferrous Metal Industry’s Foreign Engineering and Construction Company. The country is also in talks to build a 2m-tonne alumina refinery to support the sector’s expansion.

Here’s the bottom line: the Trump administration’s latest sanctions on Iran’s metals exports will help to further constrict the ability of Iran to develop missiles, spread radical Islam and mayhem in the region and support terrorist networks.

The countries and companies that are currently helping to finance Iran’s rogue behaviour through the metals trade have been put on notice that the price of such trade has just become a lot steeper. As buyers, they should beware that there will be zero tolerance for violations of Iranian sanctions in future.

The writer is assistant to the US president for trade and manufacturing policy


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