分析:特朗普跨越韩朝军事分界线

英国《金融时报》 白艾德 乌山空军基地 , 迪米 东京 , 宋京雅 首尔报道
2019.07.01 12:00

唐纳德•特朗普(Donald Trump)成为首位访问朝鲜的在任美国总统,他在分隔韩朝的非军事区跨越了边境线,这一历史性的举动是他在与朝鲜独裁者金正恩(Kim Jong Un)第三次见面时做出的。

特朗普周日跨过韩朝边境,与金正恩合影留念,几分钟后,两人回到非军事区的韩国一侧。

“我没想到会在这个地方见到您,”金正恩在特朗普跨过边境线进入朝鲜后说道。“我们应该摆脱历史,走向未来”。

“重大时刻,”特朗普说道。他补充说,跨越这条国界是一种“荣誉”。

随后,两位领导人举行了自2月以来的第一次会晤;2月在河内举行的那次峰会在双方未能商定实现无核化的路径后破局,之前,在新加坡举行的具有里程碑意义的第一次“特金会”期间,金正恩曾承诺要完成朝鲜无核化。

在周日进行近一个小时的讨论后,美国总统发出了恢复核谈判的信号。他表示,双方的团队将在接下来两、三周内开始工作。“我们并不寻求快速,而是希望正确把握,”他表示。

此次会晤是在短时间内安排的,此前特朗普上周六在Twitter上邀请朝鲜独裁者借他访问韩国之机到非军事区与他会面。但是,美国官员们此前已经为一次可能的会面做了一些准备工作。

近几周,两位领导人还交换了信件,从而为此前陷入停滞的谈判进程增添了动力。河内峰会破局的症结是特朗普拒绝在金正恩放弃整个核武计划之前放松制裁。但在周日,美国总统提出了采取金正恩所希望的更为渐进的方法的可能性。

“制裁依然存在,但在谈判期间的某个时间点,事情可能会发生,”特朗普在与金正恩会晤后表示。

特朗普此次会晤金正恩是在平壤最近试射几枚短程弹道导弹(这是朝鲜自2017年以来第一次试射弹道导弹)后发生的。为了维持与金正恩的关系,特朗普淡化了这些试射的重要性,与他手下官员们的说法相抵触。

中央情报局(CIA)原朝鲜事务分析专家Sue Mi Terry指出,一个积极的结果是,特朗普表示,金正恩已同意指定一个团队同美国的朝鲜问题特使斯蒂芬•比根(Stephen Biegun)谈判。“此前,特朗普与金正恩之间的哥们情谊阻碍了谈判进展,因为金只想与特朗普打交道,”她表示。

CIA原分析员、专门研究金正恩的专家Jung Pak表示,如果金正恩真正授权他的谈判代表,那么这次会议可能被证明是值得的,但她本人对此持怀疑态度。

“如果他没做什么就能让美国总统跨越边界进入朝鲜,那么他会有什么动力?”Jung Pak表示。

曾经担任克林顿政府对朝谈判代表的温迪•谢尔曼(Wendy Sherman)表示,金正恩赢得了“威权选美比赛”。此言指的是特朗普在20国集团(G20)峰会上会晤俄罗斯总统弗拉基米尔•普京(Vladimir Putin)、沙特阿拉伯王储穆罕默德•本•萨勒曼(Mohammed Bin Salman)、土耳其总统雷杰普•塔伊普•埃尔多安(Recep Tayyip Erdogan)和中国国家主席习近平。

一个关键问题是,特朗普是否改变了他的立场,即金正恩必须放弃他的整个核计划才能获得制裁放松。对此谢尔曼表示:“如果普京、穆罕默德•本•萨勒曼、习近平、埃尔多安是先例,特朗普作出了让步,但并没有真的获得任何回报。”

虽然许多专家批评此次“特金会”只是拍照机会,但也有一些人表示,考虑到两年前特朗普以“火与怒”威胁平壤(当时金正恩试射了远程导弹)时存在的紧张,两国领导人见面总是好事。

“改变根本格局和改变关系的性质真的很难,”首尔延世大学(Yonsei University)的朝鲜问题专家鲁乐汉(John Delury)表示。“这是这个等式的不可或缺的组成部分,不容易做到。”

在哈里•杜鲁门(Harry Truman)总统下令美国军队驰援韩国69年后,特朗普访问了非军事区。这也是美国领导人首次与韩国总统一起访问该地区。特朗普由文在寅(Moon Jae-in)陪同,后者表示,特朗普和金正恩的握手“将成为和平进程中的一个重大里程碑”。

译者/和风

原文:Donald Trump enters N Korea and meets Kim Jong Un

By Edward White, Demetri Sevastopulo,Song Jung-a in Osan Air Base, in Tokyo, in Seoul

Donald Trump has become the first sitting US president to visit North Korea after crossing from the demilitarised zone that divides the Korean Peninsula, in a historic move during his third encounter with North Korean dictator Kim Jong Un.

Mr Trump stepped over the border and posed for photographs with Mr Kim on Sunday before the pair crossed back to the South Korean side of the DMZ minutes later.

“I didn’t expect to meet you at this place,” Mr Kim said after Mr Trump stepped over the border into North Korea. “We should shake off history and move forward to the future”.

“Big moment,” said Mr Trump, who added that it was an “honour” to cross the border.

The two leaders then had their first meeting since February, when they held a summit in Hanoi  that collapsed after they failed to agree on the path to denuclearisation, which Mr Kim had pledged to complete during their landmark first meeting in Singapore.

After an almost hour-long discussion on Sunday, the US president signalled the resumption of nuclear talks. He said teams from both sides would start working over the next two to three weeks. “We are not looking for speed, we are looking to get it right,” he said. 

The meeting was orchestrated at short notice after Mr Trump on Saturday tweeted an invitation to the North Korean dictator to meet him in the DMZ during a visit to South Korea. But US officials had done some preparatory work in case of a possible meeting.

The leaders had also exchanged letters in recent weeks, adding momentum to a process that had ground to a halt. The Hanoi summit collapsed after Mr Trump refused to ease sanctions until Mr Kim abandoned his entire nuclear programme. But on Sunday, he suggested the possibility of taking the more incremental approach desired by Mr Kim.

“The sanctions remain, but at some point during the negotiations things can happen,” Mr Trump said after his meeting with Mr Kim.

Mr Trump met Mr Kim even though Pyongyang recently tested several  short-range ballistic missiles  — the first such move since 2017. He had played down the tests — contradicting his own officials — in an effort to maintain his relationship with Mr Kim.

Sue Terry, a former CIA North Korea expert, said one positive result was the fact that Mr Trump said Mr Kim had agreed to designate a team to negotiate with Steve Biegun, the US’s North Korea envoy. “Thus far the Trump-Kim bromance acted as an impediment to making progress, because Kim wanted to only deal with Trump,” she said.

Jung Pak, a former CIA analyst and Kim expert, said the meeting could prove worthwhile if Mr Kim really empowered his negotiators, but said she was sceptical.

“What would be the incentive for him if he can get the president of the United States to cross over into North Korea without having done very much?” Ms Pak said. 

Wendy Sherman, a former North Korea negotiator in the Clinton administration, said Mr Kim had won the “authoritarian beauty contest” — a reference to meetings Mr Trump had at the G20 with Russian president Vladimir Putin, Crown Prince Mohammed Bin Salman of Saudi Arabia, Turkish president Recep Tayyip Erdogan, and Xi Jinping of China.

One key question was whether Mr Trump had altered his position that Mr Kim must abandon his entire nuclear programme to get sanctions relief, Ms Sherman said: “If Putin, MBS, Xi, Erdogan are precedent, Trump gave but didn’t really get anything.”

While many experts criticised the meeting as a photo op, others said it was better for the two leaders to meet, given the tensions that existed two years ago when Mr Trump was threatening Pyongyang with “ fire and fury” as Mr Kim tested long-range missiles.

“It is really hard to change the fundamental dynamic and change the nature of the relationship,” said John Delury, a North Korea expert at Yonsei University in Seoul. “That is an essential part of this equation, and it is not easy to do.”

Mr Trump’s visit to the DMZ came 69 years after President Harry Truman ordered US troops to Korea. It was also the first time a US leader visited the area with a South Korean president. Mr Trump was accompanied by Moon Jae-in, who said a handshake between Mr Trump and Mr Kim “would be a significant milestone in the peace process”.

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