“华为禁令可能导致技术分化”


2019.06.10 12:00

负责制定5G标准的国际机构警告称,美国将中国电信设备制造商华为(Huawei)列入黑名单,可能会对未来的标准化产生“戏剧性影响”。分析师们警告,此举可能导致下一代无线技术的开发出现分化。

3GPP常设支持团队的负责人阿德里安•斯卡斯(Adrian Scrase)表示:“我们无法推测会发生什么,但如果目前局面持续下去,可能会对未来的标准化产生戏剧性影响。”

分析师们列出了几项风险,如全球标准制定体系的破裂,以及重返一个分化的市场——就像中国的“长城防火墙”把当初设想的无边界网络空间搞成了一个“分割网”那样。

华为和其他中国集团已经在标准制定方面发挥着主导作用。该集团的高管乔治•迈尔(Georg Mayer)在标准制定机构3GPP领导着制定技术规格的三个部门之一。市场情报组织IPlytics表示,这家总部位于深圳的公司还拥有比其他公司更多的5G标准必要专利。

“3GPP崩溃的风险很高。”杰富瑞(Jefferies)分析师李裕生(Edison Lee)说。他还认为,如果华为留在标准制定机构,美国企业可能会退出,但根据“实体清单”(Entity List)的条款,美国的专利技术不能被按照许可提供给华为。

“如果中国企业被禁止按许可使用他们已经见过的技术——而且在很多情况下他们对这些技术产生过很大影响——(风险在于)他们可能会照用这些技术。”他说。

花旗(Citibank)分析师刘斌强调了中国推行本国标准的风险,但他指出,本土系统的先例并不令人鼓舞——不仅是中国,20年前开发了“个人手持式电话系统”(PHS,中国俗称“小灵通”——译者注)的日本也是如此。

“那是一个严峻的教训,因为在那之后日本的设备供应商失去了机会。”他说。“但对中国来说,影响因素之一是其市场大,并且已经具备了一些技术能力,因此可能与日本不同。”

华为已被一些国际行业组织排除在外,如为半导体产品制订标准的电子器件工程联合委员会(JEDEC)。上周,电气电子工程师学会(IEEE)撤销了禁止华为员工参与研究评审的决定。

任何更广泛的排斥华为代表,都将对中国加速发展技术标准并获得领先话语权的目标造成打击。

从数字看,中国可以依赖一定程度的成功。在3GPP全会上,除了迈尔的职位外,另有两个副主席职位也由中国人士担任。而只有两家美国企业有代表。

译者/何黎

原文:Standards body warns on US blacklisting of Huawei

Louise Lucas in Hong Kong

The international body responsible for setting 5G standards has warned that the US move to blacklist Chinese telecoms group Huawei could have “a dramatic impact” on future standardisation, with analysts warning it could lead to a bifurcation in development of the next-generation wireless technology.

Adrian Scrase, who heads up the 3GPP’s permanent support team, said: “We cannot speculate on what will happen, but if the current situation prevails — this could have a dramatic impact on future standardisation.”

Analysts see several risks, including a fracturing of the global standard setting system and a return to a bifurcated market — much as China’s great firewall has created a “splinternet” of what was conceived of as borderless cyber space.

Huawei and other Chinese groups already play a leading role in standard setting. Georg Mayer, an executive at the telecoms group, leads one of three divisions that decides on technical specifications at 3GPP, the standards body. The Shenzhen-based company also owns more 5G standard essential patents for the technology than any other company, according to market intelligence group IPlytics.

“The risk that 3GPP is going to break down is pretty high,” said Edison Lee, analyst at Jefferies. He also sees a possibility that US companies will pull out of standards bodies if Huawei remains at the table but US patented technology — under the terms of the Entity List — cannot be licensed to the group.

“If Chinese companies are prohibited from licensing technologies that they have already seen — and which in many cases they have heavily influenced — [the risk is] they could just use it,” he said.

Bin Liu, analyst at Citibank, highlighted the risk of China pursuing its own standards, noting that the precedent for homegrown systems was not encouraging — not just in China but also Japan, which developed its cordless Personal Handy-phone System two decades ago.

“This is a bad lesson because Japanese equipment vendors lost opportunities after that,” he said. “But one of the influencing factors for China is that it has a big market and already has some technological abilities, so may be different from Japan.”

Huawei has already been suspended from a number of international trade bodies, including Jedec, which sets guidelines for semiconductors. The Institute of Electrical and Electronics Engineers last week reversed its decision to prohibit Huawei employees from participating in research reviews.

Any broader ditching of the company’s delegates would be a blow to China’s aim to accelerate the development of technology standards and be a leading voice.

Based on numbers, it can count on a measure of success. At the 3GPP meeting, China claimed two vice-chairman roles in addition to Mr Mayer’s position. Just two US companies are represented.

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