台湾GDP对大陆的依赖程度究竟有多高,假设处于极端情况,我们能够用哪些经济制裁措施?

学界对两岸经济依赖关系有很多研究,特别是从全球价值链[1]视角出发,使用出口增加值数据,能够比较好地分解上下游依赖关系。

这里介绍一篇:段小梅.”两岸在全球价值链中的分工地位和依赖关系——基于TiVA数据的实证分析.” 世界经济研究 .12(2016)

文章主要通过上游依赖度和最终需求贡献率来测算两岸的依赖程度,具体如下:

主要的结论是:

  1. 台湾对日本、大陆、欧盟、东盟、美国均有较高的上游依赖。
  2. 台湾地区对大陆的上游和最终需求贡献率较高,大陆对台湾的上游依赖度持续降低。
  3. 大陆的市场、人口基数对台湾有强烈吸引,是台湾最大贸易伙伴。如两岸贸易发展受阻,台湾经济受损程度将远高于大陆。

由于价值链数据更新较慢,这篇2016年的文章的数据只到2011年,难以反映现状。而最近10年大陆经济已经发生了巨大变化,特别是在高科技领域,台湾在这方面对大陆的重要程度也在下降。两岸经贸结构也在变化,下面这段话的情况也发生了一定变化,大陆技术创新也取得了长足进步。从趋势上来看,台湾对大陆的上游越来越依赖,而大陆市场对台商也越来越重要,ECFA进一步加强了台湾对大陆的依赖。

大陆依赖台商的资金、技术、管理经验的时代早已过去。在部分高技术产业,台湾对大陆经济依旧具有不小价值,不过日韩等周边经济体能够在一定程度上实现替代,只是在于成本差异。在极个别的产业(如芯片),台湾确实处于世界一流,但是如果算“政治账”,这些也就算不上什么了。

参考

  1. ^关于全球价值链的方法可参考:Robert Koopman, Zhi Wang and Shang-Jin Wei, “Tracing Value-added and Double Counting in Gross Exports,” American Economic Review, 2014.
发帖时间: news

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