特斯拉面对汽车产业周期的挑战

特斯拉(Tesla)2003年由Martin Eberhard和马克·塔彭宁Marc Tarpenning共同创立,2004年Musk进入公司并领导了A轮融资,第一款产品Roadster发布于2008年,正好遇上金融危机。而这一路蓬勃的向上,经历了很多的困难。现在也正好遇上了全球汽车产业发展的一轮下行周期,从股价的角度来看也能反映出产业周期对新兴汽车公司的考验(这是按照10年一轮兴衰为周期测试),半年内最高为376美金,现在到了低谷211美金。

我们从全球来看,欧洲、美国、亚洲(中日韩),今年汽车行业的主基调就是调整、收缩和裁员,应对下行周期每个车企都是有自己一套机制能保全自己的策略。而特斯拉遇到的问题,除了这些之外,还有本身产品属性独树一帜带来的消费者系统性的审视,安不安全?要不要买?在经济下滑周期,消费者会过度理性,回归保守。

特斯拉其实面临以下确实的问题:

1)和电池有关的自燃安全问题:这次是在全球爆发的无碰撞停置自燃问题,连续三起使得消费者还有消费者身边的路人都对特斯拉的车用到一定的时段是否自燃出现问题持怀疑的眼光

2)Autopilot的使用安全问题:有个事情很搞笑,妹子发视频在Autopilot使用时搞事情,完全阻挡驾驶者视线,你猜如果这时候出点事情,Elon还在推特里面提了这事情。美国NTSB周四公布调查结果称,2018年3月1日发生在佛罗里达的Model 3致命事故中,Autopilot在事故发生前的10秒中是处于启动的状态。当时那个司机开的好好的没用autopilot,上了一段比较好的路,开启了autopilot然后立即将手从方向盘上移开,10秒后司机殒命。

3)市场的问题:现在主要的三块市场(美国、欧洲和中国)都有各自的问题。美国市场要开拓,通过租赁是能保持的;欧洲处于很难持续发力的;中国市场,我是觉得目前的China-US的状态,到年底的市场能成什么样子,现在也要打一个大大的问号。在大是大非面前,都要秋风扫落叶一样对待,面对从全球化走向孤立主义的市场,明显的天花板已经出现了。

特斯拉能做的事情:

1)特斯拉对于已经卖出的车辆,主要采取的措施是进行OTA,对于所有Model S和Model X进行了软件方面的配置进行调整,针对旧电池的热管理和充电策略方面进行,这算是一个预防性的措施,防止再出事故。

“As we continue our investigation of the root cause, out of anabundance of caution, we are revising charge and thermal management settings on Model S and Model X vehicles via anover-the-air software update that will begin rolling out today特斯拉公告

  • 充电的温度策略:在这个方面,特别是特斯拉的快充,之前为了速度考虑需要让电芯温度自由上升较高,但是考虑安全和寿命,就需要进一步限制温度上升,在功率曲线上进行调整,并把温度点的上升控制在一个范围内

  • 使用中的热管理:可能把开启主动循环的温度拉下来,其实这么大的电池在市区里面开,温度也不太上升,调整热管理策略主要是进行参数的收缩,这是特斯拉的BMS的CAN通信信号列表

2)Autopilot的问题:特斯拉第一次出事故是和mobileye闹翻,然后自己全面做软件;现在解决问题的方式是采用full self-driving computer即 Autopilot 硬件 3.0 ,之前一堆人吹爆的车载 AI 芯片,能说什么好呢,在没有足够信息的时候对一个自己不了解的东西,盲目吹捧可能会导致不明真相的读者去盲目信任。在这个安全的问题上,没有得到充分的验证,后面还会有事故。我个人的看法,在这个领域立flag最终都会给打掉,这是需要时间,整个汽车行业还有AI、感知等通过长期努力得来的。

3)市场问题:如果宏观经济下行,其实对于特斯拉影响没有那么大。我倾向于认为,往特别大的规模发展,短期内像大众这样,有钱、有工厂、有自己的一堆员工要养活,可以奋力一搏。类似特斯拉面对各种不确定的环境,也要不断往市场拿钱,不断投入,这种逆周期操作,很心跳的。

小结:特斯拉其实是一个很好的镜子,路遥知马力,想要成为汽车产业的黑马,就是按照2个五年起步,2年五年站住。

发帖时间: news

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