特朗普对华立场意外放软 激怒美国鹰派

英国《金融时报》 迪米 大阪 , 米强 北京报道
2019.07.01 12:00

唐纳德•特朗普(Donald Trump)激怒了美国的安全鹰派,因为他对中国电信设备制造商华为(Huawei)的立场有所软化——就连北京方面也没有预料到,在20国集团(G20)会议期间,作为与中国国家主席习近平达成贸易休战的一部分,美国总统会作出这种让步。

上周六,美中两国在大阪就贸易战达成了一定程度的妥协,美国总统同意不对中国商品加征新的关税,而中国同意购买美国的农产品。更为出人意料的是,特朗普还同意逆转一项实际上禁止美国企业向华为出售软件和设备的决定。

特朗普首先表示,他告诉习近平,他只会在贸易谈判的“最后一刻”考虑解决华为的问题。但周日他透露,“应我国高科技企业和习主席的要求”,他逆转了禁止向华为出售设备的立场。

“特朗普让中国人明确感觉到,在中国问题上,他是交易型的,而不在乎意识形态——中方认为这是个好消息。”中央情报局(CIA)前中国事务分析主管韦德宁(Dennis Wilder)表示。“国家安全鹰派们感到不悦,并将在国会试图阻止他在华为问题上的行动。”

支持对中国采取强硬立场的参议员马克•鲁比奥(Marco Rubio)表示,国会必须做出回应:“如果特朗普总统同意撤销最近针对华为的制裁,他就犯下了一个灾难性的错误。”他发推文写道。

今年早些时候,当特朗普暗示他将考虑把华为纳入任何贸易协议时,就引发了那些认为该公司构成了安全威胁的人的批评。他们担心总统会忽视他们的担忧,以履行他在竞选期间作出的减少对华贸易逆差的承诺。

在中国看来,这次会晤的结果比预期的要好,这和习近平与特朗普的其他几次会面一致,后者一旦与中国领导人见面,好斗的身段就会放软。

在全球领导人齐聚一堂之前,北京方面就自信地判断,特朗普不会对中国输美商品征收新的关税,并将同意重启贸易谈判,以换取中国象征性地购买美国农产品。

但熟悉中方准备工作的人士表示,中国官员与分析人士没有预料到贸易分歧会有所缩小、或者美国对华为的立场会软化,而只是想阻止两国关系进入螺旋式下滑。恢复贸易谈判“很可能是我们所能期望的最好结果。”中国人民大学的时殷弘教授在G20会议召开前表示。

因此,特朗普提出减轻对华为施压,及其表示两国可能成为“战略合作伙伴”的言论,都让人感到意外。上周六,华为发推文写道:“180度大转弯?”,表明了在中国,人们普遍认为这一事态发展令人难以置信。

在被英国《金融时报》问及他是否计划将华为从“实体清单”中删除时,特朗普表示,这一问题正在商讨中。“实体清单”规定美国企业必须先申请许可证,才能向清单上的外国企业出口产品。一位官员表示,特朗普政府也在寻找以其他方式来实现这一转变。

白宫首席经济顾问拉里•库德洛(Larry Kudlow)周日表示,这一策略的改变并不是对华为的一道“大赦”。

“将会发生的只是,在存在普遍可获得性的情况下,美国商务部将颁发一些临时额外许可证。”他告诉福克斯新闻(Fox News)。“例如,美国的一些芯片制造商正在销售一些产品,而坦率地说,这些产品可以普遍从其他国家获得。”

战略与国际研究中心(Center for Strategic and International Studies)的中国事务专家葛莱仪(Bonnie Glaser)指出,2017年,在习近平提出请求后,特朗普也改变过对另一家中国电信设备制造商中兴通讯(ZTE)的立场。

“当时特朗普在牢牢卡住中兴通讯的时候解救了这家企业,所以现在没人应该感到惊讶。”葛莱仪在谈及美国总统对华为立场的最新逆转时表示。“显然,特朗普认为华为是讨价还价的筹码。他已多次表示,华为可能是贸易协议的一部分。”

译者/何黎

原文:Trump’s Huawei shift angers US security hawks

By Demetri Sevastopulo,Tom Mitchell in Osaka, in Beijing

Donald Trump has angered US security hawks by softening his stance on Chinese telecoms company Huawei — a concession even Beijing had not expected to win as part of a trade truce with President Xi Jinping at the G20.

As part of the trade compromise brokered on Saturday in Osaka, the US president agreed not to impose new tariffs on Chinese goods and China agreed to buy US agricultural produce. In a less expected twist, Mr Trump also agreed to reverse a decision that had in effect imposed a ban on American groups to sell software and equipment to Huawei.

Mr Trump first said he told Mr Xi he would only consider addressing Huawei issues at the “very end” of the trade talks. But on Sunday he revealed he reversed his position on the sale of gear to Huawei “at the request of our high tech companies and President Xi”.

“Trump gave the Chinese a clear sense that he is transactional on China rather than ideological — which they take as good news,” said Dennis Wilder, former head of China analysis at the CIA. “National security hawks are unhappy and will try to block his Huawei move in Congress.”

Senator Marco Rubio, who supports a hard line on China, said Congress would have to respond: “If President Trump has agreed to reverse recent sanctions against #Huawei he has made a catastrophic mistake,” he tweeted.

When Mr Trump earlier this year suggested he would consider including Huawei in any trade deal, it sparked criticism from those arguing the company posed a security threat. They feared the president would overlook their concerns to meet his campaign pledge about reducing the US trade deficit with China.

From China’s perspective, the meeting went better than expected, in line with Mr Xi’s other encounters with Mr Trump, whose appetite for fighting wanes when in the same room as his Chinese counterpart.

Before the gathering of world leaders, Beijing was confident that he would not impose new tariffs on Chinese exports and that he would agree to a resumption of trade talks in return for token purchases of US agricultural goods.

But Chinese officials and analysts did not expect any narrowing of the trade differences or a softening on Huawei and merely sought to halt the downward spiral in relations, people familiar with China’s preparations said. A resumption of trade talks is “probably the best outcome we can expect,” Shi Yinhong of Renmin University had said before the G20.

So Mr Trump’s offer to ease the pressure on Huawei and his comment that the nations could become “strategic partners” came as a surprise. Illustrating the general disbelief in China, Huawei tweeted “U-turn?” on Saturday.

Asked by the Financial Times if he planned to remove Huawei from the “entity list” — which dictates which US companies get licences to export to Chinese companies on the list — Mr Trump said it was under discussion. One official said the administration was also looking at other ways to enact the change.

Larry Kudlow, a senior White House economic adviser, said on Sunday the change in tack was not a “general amnesty” for Huawei.

“All that’s going to happen is the Commerce Department will grant some temporary additional licences where there’s a general availability,” he told Fox News. “For example, some of the chipmakers in the United States are selling products that are frankly widely available from other countries.”

However, Bonnie Glaser, a China expert at the Center for Strategic and International Studies, pointed out that Mr Trump had also shifted his stance on ZTE, another Chinese telecoms group, in 2017 after a request from Mr Xi.

“Trump saved ZTE when he had a stranglehold on it, so no one should be surprised,” Ms Glaser said of the latest presidential reversal on Huawei. “Trump obviously views Huawei has a bargaining chip. He has said repeatedly that Huawei could be part of a deal.”

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