贸易战和人民币贬值冲击中国出境游

英国《金融时报》 汤姆•汉考克 上海 , 杰米•史密斯 悉尼报道
2019.07.01 12:00

中国经济增长放缓、与美国的贸易战以及人民币走弱,正导致中国赴海外游客支出大幅下降。

世界旅游组织(UNWTO)的数据显示,去年中国出境游达1.5亿人次,对全球旅游市场至关重要,约占全球旅游支出的五分之一。

但官方数据显示,与去年同期相比,今年第一季度中国游客的境外支出减少了10%。行业高管和分析师表示,中国经济增长放缓和去年人民币贬值(部分是中美贸易战所致)是原因所在。

这使得中国游客倾向于国内旅行,或者退而求其次选择更便宜的旅行。“中产阶级游客会选择更便宜的旅行,”在上海经营一家专事欧洲旅行业务的旅行社的Peter Liao表示,“汇率是一个影响因素。旅行社越来越难卖掉更昂贵的旅游套餐。”

数据显示,在泰国和越南等受中国游客青睐的热门目的地国家,今年中国游客数量出现了低个位数下降,而在一些距离较远的旅游目的地,则出现了更大幅度的下降。

今年4月,中国游客造访新西兰次数同比下降21%。

4月份,中国游客造访澳大利亚的次数减少了6%。去年,中国超过新西兰,成为澳大利亚最大的游客来源国,中国游客在澳大利亚消费120亿澳元(合80亿美元)——占外国游客在澳大利亚总消费金额的逾四分之一。

今年3月,中国国航(Air China)取消了悉尼往返上海和墨尔本往返上海的航线。“随着市场的成熟,我们无疑开始看到增速放缓。”澳大利亚旅游局(Tourism Australia)董事总经理约翰•奥沙利文(John O ‘Sullivan)表示。

根据美国旅游局的数据,2018年,中国赴美旅游人次数同比下降近10%,至290万人次。此前,美国政府对中国输美商品加征关税,导致人民币对美元贬值。

美国企业指出,这种下降今年仍在继续。美国珠宝品牌蒂芙尼(Tiffany)本月向投资者表示,今年第一季度,来自赴美中国游客的销售额下降逾25%。上月,中国政府发布了赴美旅游安全提醒。

在一些距中国较近的旅游目的地,如日本,中国游客数量仍保持着两位数的增长。咨询公司龙洲经讯(Gavekal Dragonomics)的数据显示,今年第一季度,在受中国游客欢迎的头20个重要出境游目的地国家,中国游客到访次数增长6%,但这个数字低于去年23%的增幅。这20个目的地国家占到中国游客出境游的50%。

龙洲经讯分析师崔尔南(Ernan Cui)在一份简报中写道:“人民币走弱和政治紧张局势加剧,正对中国出境游造成双重打击。”她补充称,如果贸易战加剧,“人民币面临的更大下行压力将转化为中国出境游面临的更大下行压力”。

译者/何黎

原文:Chinese tourism hit by trade war and renminbi depreciation

By Tom Hancock,Jamie Smyth in Shanghai, in Sydney

China’s slowing economic growth, a trade war with the US and weakening currency are causing significant declines in spending by its tourists overseas.

Chinese people made 150m border crossings last year and are crucial to the global travel market, accounting for about a fifth of tourism spending worldwide, according to the United Nations’ World Tourism Organization.

But they spent 10 per cent less outside the country in the first quarter compared with the same period last year, according to official data. Industry executives and analysts say China’s slowing economic growth combined with the depreciation over the past year of its currency, partly as a result of the trade war with the US, are to blame.

That is causing them to favour  domestic travel or to downgrade to cheaper trips. “Middle-class travellers will choose cheaper travel options,” said Peter Liao, who operates a travel agency in Shanghai specialising in European trips. “The exchange rate is a factor. It is getting difficult for tour operators to fill up their more expensive packages.” 

Popular destinations for Chinese tourists such as Thailand and Vietnam have reported low single-digit declines in Chinese visitors this year while some long-haul destinations are reporting more dramatic falls.

Visits from China to New Zealand fell 21 per cent in April compared with the same month a year earlier.

In Australia, arrivals from China fell 6 per cent in April. China overtook New Zealand as the largest source of travellers to Australia last year when they spent A$12bn ($8bn) in the country — more than a quarter of total spending by international visitors. 

Air China axed its Sydney to Shanghai and Melbourne to Shanghai routes in March. “We are undoubtedly starting to see slower rates of growth as the market matures,” said John O’Sullivan, managing director of Tourism Australia. 

Chinese visits to the US fell nearly 10 per cent year on year in 2018 to 2.9m, according to the country’s tourism office, after Washington’s imposition of tariffs on Chinese exports caused the renminbi to depreciate against the dollar. 

American businesses indicate the slowdown has continued this year. US jewellery brand Tiffany this month told investors that domestic sales to Chinese tourists declined more than 25 per cent in the first quarter. Beijing last month issued a warning on travel to the US. 

Some destinations closer to home, such as Japan, have continued to see double-digit growth. Chinese visitor arrivals at its 20 most important destination countries that account for 50 per cent of overseas trips grew 6 per cent in the first quarter, according to data from consultancy Gavekal Dragonomics, but that was down from 23 per cent growth last year.

“Overseas travel is being hit with a double whammy of a weakening currency and rising political tensions,” Ernan Cui, an analyst at Gavekal Dragonomics wrote in a note. If the trade war worsens, “more downward pressure on the renminbi would translate into more downward pressure on Chinese outbound tourism”, she added.


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