七破梦醒觉夜寒，引退知时自古难

8月 5, 2019 4,966 Comments

七破梦醒觉夜寒，引退知时自古难：

因有问，所以有答……

文中数字未经确认，只是道听途说，谨作参考……

为什么破7？

首先强国汇率，因为杯可自由兑换，再加上一个可调因子，所以不是市场汇率，而是一个政策/政治汇率……

由于手中有可调因子，这汇率全由央妈说了算，说多少就是多少……

所以，保7是强国对鸡耳灵各国的一个承诺，也是强国经济稳定，政治稳定，金融安全的一个标杆……

断崖式破7，是多种因素叠加造成的……

经济下行，外企撤资，热钱外逃，像洪水蓄流一样，给三山夹大土贝巨大压力，如不泄洪，随时都可能溃坝决堤……

7，就如明朝的山海关一样，保7放在了保房之上，宁可牺牲流动性，也要死保………

多少大空头虎视眈眈，但怯于央妈保7的决心，一直不敢出手……

现在为什么突然弃守山海关？

主要的诱因怪大嘴，大嘴突然给3000亿加关税，让天尊无牌可打，只能弃7反击，理论上是7.5的汇率可以对冲大嘴的10%关税……

其次是渔村的三罢，对渔村未来的悲观以及对介盐谣传的恐慌情绪，让热钱得三思此时不跑何时跑？

三是那些大空头们，肯定不会错过这次大好机会……

四是猜测央妈外汇库存枯竭，能用的弹药有限。传早把外储中的4500亿刀卖出去作了Forward，同时还从渔村的外储中借了4000亿刀未还，导致汇丰CEO辞职……

第二个问题是破7的可持续性？

从市场的预期来看，贬值是趋势性的……

首先需要看大嘴和天尊达成协议的可能性有多大？

开始，天尊的策略就是拖字诀，希望先拖到大嘴2020大选之后再说……

现在，大嘴的策略也是拖，拖得越久对大嘴越有利，因为大嘴在木勒的通俄门报告以后几乎可以锁定连任，不再需要和天尊的协议来为连任造势了……

另外，大嘴的胃口已经空前变大，不再是谋图和天尊贸易的对等，而是重构全球新秩序……

大嘴摆出的就是全面脱钩架势，逼天尊像鑫元首长考一样：是融入还是隔绝？……

如果大嘴把关税提到25%，也许需要8.5才是对等……

有一种说法是，大嘴的关税极限施压并不是施压天尊，而是施压那些还在犹豫不决的外企和相关产业链……

然后是渔村问题什么时候能够圆满解决？同时还能重塑国际资本对渔村五十年不变的信心……

三是看天尊愿意回到过去的可能有多大？这个就不妄议了……

四是最近出炉的一份经济数据说，2019年1-6月，只有魔都一市不是赤字……

到处都缺钱，同时债市和房市到处都埋着地雷，许多中小银行可能都和包银一样……

除了放水，还是放水，可是放水之后呢……

燕巢危幕，抚事增忧……

釜水将沸，游鱼不知……

听到的是橼木破裂……

看到的是声色张扬……

四处歌舞升平，

堆积底色悲凉……

能不能持续，也许是徒增口水的问题……

能不能看紧自己的钱袋子，还是得看自己……

聪慧如李跑跑的，也就李跑跑一人而已……

引退知时自古难……

打赏作者

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