七破梦醒觉夜寒,引退知时自古难

七破梦醒觉夜寒,引退知时自古难:

因有问,所以有答……

文中数字未经确认,只是道听途说,谨作参考……

为什么破7

首先强国汇率,因为杯可自由兑换,再加上一个可调因子,所以不是市场汇率,而是一个政策/政治汇率……

由于手中有可调因子,这汇率全由央妈说了算,说多少就是多少……

所以,保7是强国对鸡耳灵各国的一个承诺,也是强国经济稳定,政治稳定,金融安全的一个标杆……

断崖式破7,是多种因素叠加造成的……

经济下行,外企撤资,热钱外逃,像洪水蓄流一样,给三山夹大土贝巨大压力,如不泄洪,随时都可能溃坝决堤……

7,就如明朝的山海关一样,保7放在了保房之上,宁可牺牲流动性,也要死保………

多少大空头虎视眈眈,但怯于央妈保7的决心,一直不敢出手……

现在为什么突然弃守山海关?

主要的诱因怪大嘴,大嘴突然给3000亿加关税,让天尊无牌可打,只能弃7反击,理论上是7.5的汇率可以对冲大嘴的10%关税……

其次是渔村的三罢,对渔村未来的悲观以及对介盐谣传的恐慌情绪,让热钱得三思此时不跑何时跑?

三是那些大空头们,肯定不会错过这次大好机会……

四是猜测央妈外汇库存枯竭,能用的弹药有限。传早把外储中的4500亿刀卖出去作了Forward,同时还从渔村的外储中借了4000亿刀未还,导致汇丰CEO辞职……

第二个问题是破7的可持续性?

从市场的预期来看,贬值是趋势性的……

首先需要看大嘴和天尊达成协议的可能性有多大?

开始,天尊的策略就是拖字诀,希望先拖到大嘴2020大选之后再说……

现在,大嘴的策略也是拖,拖得越久对大嘴越有利,因为大嘴在木勒的通俄门报告以后几乎可以锁定连任,不再需要和天尊的协议来为连任造势了……

另外,大嘴的胃口已经空前变大,不再是谋图和天尊贸易的对等,而是重构全球新秩序……

大嘴摆出的就是全面脱钩架势,逼天尊像鑫元首长考一样:是融入还是隔绝?……

如果大嘴把关税提到25%,也许需要8.5才是对等……

有一种说法是,大嘴的关税极限施压并不是施压天尊,而是施压那些还在犹豫不决的外企和相关产业链……

然后是渔村问题什么时候能够圆满解决?同时还能重塑国际资本对渔村五十年不变的信心……

三是看天尊愿意回到过去的可能有多大?这个就不妄议了……

四是最近出炉的一份经济数据说,20191-6月,只有魔都一市不是赤字……

到处都缺钱,同时债市和房市到处都埋着地雷,许多中小银行可能都和包银一样……

除了放水,还是放水,可是放水之后呢……

燕巢危幕,抚事增忧……

釜水将沸,游鱼不知……

听到的是橼木破裂……

看到的是声色张扬……

四处歌舞升平,

堆积底色悲凉……

能不能持续,也许是徒增口水的问题……

能不能看紧自己的钱袋子,还是得看自己……

聪慧如李跑跑的,也就李跑跑一人而已……

引退知时自古难……

打赏作者

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