兴尽晚回舟,误入藕花深处。争渡,争渡,惊起一滩沙鹭。

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孟晚舟案件解读系列(1)

程绍铭律师: 我们要以美国人的是思维方式,从美国人的角度去是去思考一些事情和现象,而不是一厢情愿地以自己的想法和角度去思考问题。美国做事情,一般会有他自己的事实和法律依据。美国处理事情的方式,来源于他的哲学思想体系,法律制度和外交理念。可惜,中国的理论界和媒体对美国的思想理论体系知之甚少,甚至根本不知道。不知彼知己, 何以百战不殆? 孟晚舟是中美冲突的另一种表现形式。很多人没有意识到这个事件的严重性。我在美国弗吉尼亚东区联邦法院接触过几个违反《美国出口管制法》和《美国贸易禁运法》的案件,被告的胜诉率不到2%,而且被告都被处予很长的刑期。 美国司法部要通过引渡条约共引渡的人,一般都是重犯,要犯。孟晚舟案中,美方手里一定会有确凿的证据,而且美国一定不会轻易放人,也会完成司法审判程序。即使川普想放人,他也做不到。 华为和孟女士该如何做?This is a one million dollar question. 这也是律师在本案中的重要性所在。 下一期,我给大家解释一下,什么是美国的《出口管制法》和《贸易禁运法》。

孟晚舟案件解读系列(2) 涉及的美国法律

程绍铭律师:我现在给大家解释一下孟晚丹案件可能涉及的两部美国的法律。 《美国出口管制》是美国制定的一部对企业在出口高科技产品和敏感技术时进行管理的法律。美国对于企业能够把高科技产品和敏感技术卖给哪些国家是有明确规定的。《出口管制法》的核心部分是《出口产品限制目录》和《终极用户证书》。 《出口管制法》中比较容易产生误解的,是军民两用技术(Due use technology)。比如说,中国曾经向美国的休斯公司购买过一颗名用卫星,但是,美国认为,这颗民用卫星可以被用作军事目的,而最终限制了该民用卫星的出口。 《终极客户证书》是指凡是购买了美国高科技产品和敏感技术的公司,该必须证明他是该高科技产品和敏感技术的最终使用人。该技术和产品不能被转让给《终极客户证书》以外的第三人,除非得到美国出口管制部门的特殊许可。 如果华为和中兴公司的产品中有来自于美国的高科技产品和敏感技术,华为和中兴公司将是该技术的终极用户。华为和中兴公司在未得到美方的许可之前,不能将该产品出口给任何第三国。 伊朗伊斯兰革命以后,美国开始对伊朗实行贸易禁运。《贸易禁运法》中禁运产品的清单,一般由美国司法部和相关部门制定。美国在退出了伊朗核协定以后,又恢复了很多对伊朗的贸易禁运。 如果谁违反《出口管制法》和《贸易禁运法》,都将是刑事重罪。孟晚丹案件的关键,是看孟晚丹本人是否参与任何有可能违反美国《出口管制法》和《贸易禁运法》的交易。 下一期我将向大家解释一下,美国在对华贸易政策方面所做的一些重大调整。以及这些政策调整对中国高科技企业的影响。

孟晚舟案件解读系列(3) 政治背景和美国对华贸易政策的重大改变

要谈美国的对华贸易政策,就必须谈霸权主义理论。霸权主义理论认为,美国一手打造,精心维护了二战以后的国际政治经济秩序。很多国家都是该秩序的受益者。比如日本,亚洲四小龙战后的经济腾飞。欧洲战后重建,恢复,和发展。 美国为建立和维护这一秩序,也付出了巨大的代价。美国世界第一的军费,往往是后面几个国家的总合。当世界警察,美国军队也不停地有伤亡。当然,美国也是该秩序最大的受益者。美元经济决定了大家为美国提供各种商品,美国给大家一张长期借条。 川普作为一个商人总统,他的特点就是务实,狡诈,目地性强,口是心非,心口不一,然而他又是一个爱国者。跟一些理想主义的政治家相比,他并不在乎他的行为是否符合大家的行事习惯和标准。他认为,美国在战后的国际秩序中,承担的太多,获得的不够,所以他必须去改变这一秩序。他从另外一个角度去分析一些贸易协定,包括北美自由贸易协定,对欧贸易,对韩贸易,对华贸易。 川普对中美贸易极度不满。他认为中美贸易中,美国不但吃了大亏,而且培养了一个竞争对手。这一现象一定需要改变。所以他上台以后,对中国频频出手,打得又狠又准。 川普同时认为,在中美贸易中,中方盗用了很多美国的知识产权。如果美国不作为,美国不但会失去科技方面的领先的优势,也会失去战略上的优势。这也就是川普上台以后,以中国相关的科技间谍案,中美贸易战发生的根本原因,这也是孟晚丹案发生的政治背景。 根据霸权主义理论,美国是不会允许任何国家去挑战他的霸主地位的,同时美国也时时刻刻在寻找他的假想敌人。基辛格“中美关系回不到从前“一句话,实在令人回味…

孟晚舟案件解读系列(4) 华为=狼来了?

美国发明了网络。曾几何时,斯科,爱立信等西方国家的网络设备公司,一统天下,占据网络设备公司的大部分份额。其他中国产品牌,只能代表一些低端产品。 华为是中国的四大民企。虽然没上巿,上缴的利税是阿里巴巴的数倍。更重要的是,华为的创新能力在很多方面正在赶超或者已经赶超了斯科和爱立信等西方品牌。 更重要的是,网络已经变成另外一个战场。美国国防部有专门的网络战争作战处。毫无疑问,华为是美国网络战争的对手。美国绝对不会对华为作为普通的中国民企对待。 作为5G网络的生产产家和世界第三大手机供应商,华为让美国真正感到了威胁。美国的很多政客大呼“狼来了”,并全力以赴在美国和盟国封杀华为。华为与多个美国公司的签约的合同,都被川普政府以种种理由废掉。 美国当然不会不知道,抓孟晚丹,相当于给华为上眼药。如果没有确凿的证据,美国绝对不会轻易出手。大国博弈,可泱及个人。如果华为真的被美国抓住把柄,孟女士很可能有牢狱之灾。

孟晚舟案件解读系列(5) 孟晚舟案和程律师鳄鱼理论

程绍铭律师:有不少人在问,程律师,你在美国一年处理十几起刑事案件,你认为孟晚舟的案件将会如何发展?美国将会如何处理此案。 我本人认为,美国的刑事司法机关就像一条鳄鱼。 鳄鱼平时闭着眼睛一动不动,静静地观察和等待猎物。一旦时机成熟,鳄鱼就会一口咬上去,绝不松口,让猎物不是丧命,就是身受重伤。 这次孟晚舟被鳄鱼咬住,要毛发无损地脱身,估计不容易。 在美国,因为司法独立,一个人一旦惹上官司,最好的办法就是组成强大的律师团队,为客户提供最强的辨护。在中国很多可以用的方法,在美国是根本行不通,甚至帮倒忙。 当然,在美国不被鳄鱼咬到的最好办法,是遵纪守法,并时时刻刻警惕鳄鱼的存在。

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