FT社评:G20不能回避气候变化议题

英国《金融时报》 社评
2019.06.28 12:00

欧洲正在熔化。本周,热浪席卷了整个欧洲大陆,气温飙升至40摄氏度以上,创下新的纪录。巴黎附近的学校被迫停课;德国高速公路开始实行限速;一位西班牙气象学者在Twitter上发布了该国的天气预报图并配文:“地狱来了。”

在20国集团(G20)大阪会议前的气候变化辩论期间,气温同样处于高位。为取悦美国,日本准备在G20公报中不提及“全球变暖”和“脱碳”。就在上周,四个中欧国家——爱沙尼亚、捷克共和国、波兰和保加利亚——阻止欧盟(EU)对2050年净零碳排放目标作出承诺。与此同时,沙特阿拉伯正在协助阻止联合国政府间气候变化专门委员会(IPCC)发布一份报告。

上周,俄勒冈州共和党参议员匆匆离开该州,去阻止一项具有里程碑意义的法案通过。该法案将使俄勒冈州像毗邻的加利福尼亚州一样,致力于大幅减少温室气体的排放。近几个月来,青少年罢课与要求政府“说实话”的“反抗灭绝”(Extinction Rebellion)活动等直接行动,在近几个月时常发生。与此同时,反对增加燃油税的法国“黄背心”(gilets jaunes)示威活动也是如此。

国际间应对气候变化的进展有可能停滞不前。然而,要阻止气温上升到灾难性的水平,就需要果敢的领导。依赖化石燃料的国家最终将面临一个选择,要么拖拖拉拉,要么被技术进步甩在身后。可再生能源在成本和碳排放上往往优于传统能源。阻止国际协议不会让煤炭使用延续下去。

法国总统埃马纽埃尔•马克龙(Emmanuel Macron)正确地亮明立场。他已承诺,会拒绝签署任何未提及旨在应对气候变化的2015年《巴黎协定》(Paris agreement)的G20公报。自下而上的压力似乎起了作用,而自上而下的国际会议却举步维艰。在过去几个月的欧洲议会(European Parliament)选举中,绿党成为大赢家。法国和英国正自行推进各自的零排放目标;通常不以激进主义著称的德国巴伐利亚州(Bavaria)在停止使用煤炭上比德国中央政府更进一步。在美国,多位市长和多个州政府正在介入,对联邦政府缺乏行动加以弥补。

英国、法国与加利福尼亚州都是相对较大的经济体,但最终应对气候变化将取决于排放量最大的国家和地区的行动,即中国、美国、印度及欧盟。这使得全球合作至关重要,即使自《巴黎协定》签署以来,仍有少数顽固派阻碍了进展。

即使是要实现《巴黎协定》提出的目标,各国政府也需要在未来加强努力。这意味着要在企业、劳动者及纳税人之间平衡成本。西班牙逐步淘汰煤炭的计划包括让矿工提前退休以及给予依赖煤炭的地区经济援助等,这为所谓的“公正转型”提供了一种模式,即公平地分摊成本。

令人沮丧的国际协议只能拖延不可避免的事情。气候变化的现实总有一天会让政治人士吃苦头。也许是走上街头的愤怒选民,也许是令城市不再宜居、农作物歉收的极端天气。就如逃避问题的俄勒冈州参议员与大阪G20会议与会领导人最终会发现,逃避根本就不可能。

译者/何黎

原文:Leader_G20 cannot run away from climate change

By The editorial board

Europe is in meltdown. A heatwave spread across the continent this week, thermometers soared past 40C as temperatures broke new records. Schools close to Paris were forced to close; Germany introduced speed restrictions on its autobahns; and a Spanish meteorologist tweeted a map of the country’s weather forecast with the caption: “Hell is coming.”

Temperatures are likewise running high in the climate change debate ahead of the G20 meeting in Osaka. Japan is set to omit references to “global warming” and “decarbonisation” from a G20 communiqué in a bid to please the US. This comes just days after four central European states — Estonia, Czech Republic, Poland and Bulgaria— stopped the EU from committing to a 2050 net zero carbon emissions target last week. Saudi Arabia, meanwhile, is helping to prevent publication of a report from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change.

Last week Republican senators in Oregon fled the state to block the passage of a landmark bill that would commit the state, like neighbouring California, to ambitious reductions in greenhouse gas emissions. School strikes by teenagers and direct action, such as that by Extinction Rebellion, who demand governments “tell the truth”, have become a regular occurrence in recent months. At the same time, so have protests by France’s gilets jaunes, who oppose increases in fuel taxes.

International progress on fighting climate change is in danger of stalling. Yet bold and decisive leadership is needed if temperatures are to be prevented from rising to catastrophic levels. Countries that depend on fossil fuels will ultimately face a choice between foot-dragging or being left behind by technological progress. Renewables are often beating traditional sources on cost as well as on carbon emissions. Blocking international agreements will not keep coal viable.

Emmanuel Macron, France’s president, is rightly making a stand. He has pledged to refuse to sign any G20 communiqué that leaves out a reference to the 2015 Paris agreement on combating climate change. Bottom-up pressure seems to be working where top-down international conferences stumble. Green parties were big gainers in last months’ European Parliament elections. France and Britain are pushing ahead on their own with net zero targets; Bavaria, a German state not usually known for its radicalism, is going further than the national government to end the use of coal. In the US, city mayors and state governments are stepping in to compensate for the lack of federal government action.

Britain, France and California are all relatively large economies but ultimately tackling climate change will depend on action by the largest emitters — China, the US, India and the EU. That makes global co-operation essential even if a few holdouts have blocked progress since the Paris accord.

Governments will need to step up to meet even the Paris targets in coming years. That will mean levelling with companies, workers and taxpayers about the costs. Spain’s programme to phase out coal, which involved early retirement for miners and payments to coal-dependent regions, provides one model for a so-called “just transition” which spreads costs fairly.

Frustrating international agreements can do nothing but delay the inevitable. The reality of climate change will catch up with politicians. That may be in the form of angry voters on the streets, or of extreme weather that makes cities uninhabitable and crops fail. As fugitive Oregon senators and G20 leaders in Osaka will eventually find, running away is not an option.

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