FT社评:G20勉强维系了国际合作

英国《金融时报》 社评
2019.07.01 12:00

20国集团(G20)峰会正形成一种模式。大阪的这个周末看起来很像7个月前布宜诺斯艾利斯(Buenos Aires)的重现。在会议召开前夕,美国总统唐纳德•特朗普(Donald Trump)加大了与中国的关税战的力度,随后他与中国国家主席习近平达成休战并同意重启谈判。各国领导人就在公报中重申对巴黎气候变化协定的承诺达成了一致,但公报又单独列出了美国的反对意见。这一纸公报几乎无法掩盖各国间的分歧。

商界领袖已经对美中贸易紧张局势的缓和表示欢迎,金融市场很可能也会作出同样反应。特朗普承诺在谈判继续期间暂停对中国商品进一步加征关税,这是一个受欢迎的举动。他同意允许美国企业继续向中国电信设备集团华为(Huawei)销售产品是一个相当大的让步。然而,具体细节尚不清楚。作为回报,除了承诺购买——用特朗普的话说——“大量”美国农产品之外,这位美国总统从中方得到了什么也不清楚。

然而,协议的约定是在不取消任何已加征关税的情况下继续谈判,这样的协议也要庆祝,其实是令人沮丧的。此外,几乎没有理由假定此次休战会比去年12月达成的休战持续更长时间。谈判于5月份破裂表明,谈判已触及双方的红线。特朗普坚持要求中国修改国内法,确保政府部门遵守承诺,限制其对中国经济实施导致贸易扭曲的干预,中国政府对此表示反对,称这侵犯中国主权。中国要求一旦达成协议就取消所有关税,而不是等中国履行了协议再取消,这个要求令特朗普政府踟蹰不前。

与此同时,特朗普通过限制美国企业向华为和其他中国科技公司销售产品开辟了一条新战线——表明美国政府意在割裂全球市场。在华为问题上,尽管他于周末作出部分退让,但这场新技术冷战仍可能会对任何更广泛的双边贸易协议构成障碍。

美国总统对习近平的热情言辞或许可以被解释为一种圆滑的外交手段。然而,令人担忧的是,特朗普在大阪期间似乎更愿意与独裁者互动,而对会晤盟友没那么上心。他跟俄罗斯总统弗拉基米尔•普京(Vladimir Putin)开玩笑地说别干预美国大选。他否定自己的情报机构的说法,暗示“没有人……指认”沙特王储穆罕默德•本•萨勒曼(Mohammed bin Salman)与记者贾迈勒•卡舒吉(Jamal Khashoggi)被谋杀一事直接相关。在将朝鲜半岛一分为二的非军事区笑容满面地与金正恩(Kim Jong Un)合影后,他结束了此次行程。

反特朗普的重任又一次落到埃马纽埃尔•马克龙(Emmanuel Macron)的肩上。在这位法国总统的争取下,20国领导人签署的公报称同意减少温室气体排放的《巴黎协定》(Paris Agreement)不可逆转。尽管美国持不同意见,但土耳其和巴西与特朗普一道拒绝《巴黎协定》的风险得以避免。

最显著的成功是欧盟(EU)与南美贸易集团南方共同市场(Mercosur)之间酝酿了20年的贸易协定得以达成。这一协定来之不易,因为协议涉及南方共同市场的农业和欧洲的制造业这两个特别受保护的行业。该协议预示着,欧盟与新西兰和澳大利亚的谈判前景光明。

加之周日与越南达成的一项贸易协议,该协议确认了欧盟在贸易自由化方面的领导地位。该协议还表明,尽管长期以来作为多边主义主要支柱和支持者的美国退出多边主义,但国际合作仍在运转——尽管只是勉强维系。

译者/何黎

原文:Leader_G20 meets a low bar for international co-operation

By The editorial board

G20 summits are falling into a pattern. Osaka this weekend looked much like a rerun of Buenos Aires seven months ago. US president Donald Trump ratchets up his tariff war with China as the meeting approaches, then agrees with his Chinese counterpart Xi Jinping to a truce and a resumption of talks. Leaders just about agree on a communiqué restating commitments to the Paris climate change accord, but a separate paragraph lays out US objections. The paper barely covers the cracks.

The de-escalation of US-China trade tension has already been hailed by business leaders and, most likely, by financial markets. Mr Trump’s pledge to hold off further tariffs on Chinese goods while negotiations continue is welcome. His agreement to allow US companies to continue to sell products to Huawei, the Chinese telecoms group, is a sizeable concession. The details, however, are unclear — as is what the US president received from the Chinese side in return beyond a promise to buy, in Mr Trump’s words, a “tremendous amount” of US farm products.

Yet an agreement to keep talking, without undoing any tariffs already imposed, constitutes a depressingly low bar for celebration. There is, moreover, little reason to assume the ceasefire will last much longer than that agreed in December. The breakdown in May showed talks are running into each side’s red lines. Beijing is resisting Mr Trump’s insistence that it amend domestic legislation to ensure government departments abide by promises to curb their trade-distorting interventions in China’s economy, saying this infringes its sovereignty. The Trump administration is balking at Chinese demands to lift all tariffs once a deal is agreed, not once Beijing implements it.

Mr Trump has, in the meantime, opened a new front by restricting US companies’ sales to Huawei and other Chinese technology companies — suggesting Washington aims to bifurcate the global market. Despite his partial weekend pullback on Huawei, the new technology cold war may still block any broader bilateral trade deal.

The US president’s warm words for Mr Xi might be explained as tactful diplomacy. Yet Mr Trump seemed worryingly less interested in meeting allies in Osaka than in hanging out with autocrats. He bantered with Russia’s Vladimir Putin about meddling in US elections. He contradicted his own intelligence services by suggesting “nobody . . . has pointed directly” at Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman over the murder of the journalist Jamal Khashoggi. He capped his trip with an all-smiles photo-op with Kim Jong Un in the demilitarised zone that divides the Korean peninsula.

It fell once again to Emmanuel Macron to play the anti-Trump. The French president corralled G20 leaders into endorsing a communiqué calling the Paris agreement on reducing greenhouse gas emissions irreversible. Despite US dissent, the risk of Turkey and Brazil joining Mr Trump in rejecting the Paris deal was averted.

The most notable success was the trade agreement, 20 years in the making, between the EU and Mercosur, the South American trading bloc. This has been difficult because of the trade involved — agriculture in Mercosur and manufacturing in Europe are particularly protected sectors. The deal bodes well for talks with New Zealand and Australia.

Along with a trade agreement reached with Vietnam on Sunday, the deal confirmed EU leadership on trade liberalisation. It showed, too, that despite the retreat from multilateralism of the US, long its main pillar and proponent, international co-operation is still functioning — even if only just.

发帖时间: news

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